Agriculture after peak oil: The role of policy

by Chad Hellwinckel

Problem
Agriculture, like all other industries over the past century, has taken great advantage of the extraction and refining of plentiful, energy-dense, fossil fuels. Today, agriculture has evolved into a net energy user for the first time in 10,000 years, where, instead of being a means of converting free solar energy into metabolizable energy, it is now a means of transforming finite fossil energy into metabolizable energy. The system has allowed for the cheap production of plentiful food to feed a growing population, but as the total annual quantity of oil physically capable of being extracted from the earth begins to decline over the next several years, agriculture may find itself dependent upon a scarce and expensive resource. Due to the global economy’s inelastic demand for energy, relatively small drops in annual oil and gas output could induce rapid rises in agricultural production input prices. The question must be asked now, how will our agricultural system work at energy prices equivalent to $250 per barrel and higher? How will the system deal with sporadic scarcity? And, most importantly, how will agriculture transition into a system less dependent upon these declining energy sources?

Framing of Discussion
The implications of peak oil could be so profound that it will be helpful to bring in concepts from complex dynamic systems theory when describing what is occurring—and what must be done to move agriculture in a more sustainable direction. This post will frame the discussion in terms of agriculture being a complex adaptive system within a fitness landscape.

In evolutionary biology, the relative fitness of a species can be likened to a landscape with high peaks, representing the adapted abilities of the more fit species for that environment, and lower peaks, representing the adapted abilities of the less fit species. This is called the fitness landscape of a particular environment (figure 1). Analogously, agriculture, in general, can be viewed as a fitness landscape, with particular agricultural systems resting at the peaks of this landscape.

Over the past 80 years there has been a rapid evolution of modern agriculture to take advantage of cheap readily available inputs. This has resulted in industrial agriculture resting upon the highest peak in the fitness landscape. What complex systems theory teaches is that when the environment changes and the peaks adjust accordingly, individual species (or agricultural systems) cannot jump from one descending peak to another ascending. Species (or agricultural systems) become stuck at a sub-optimal solution only inching up their smaller peak.

As peak oil changes the landscape facing competing agricultural production systems, industrial agriculture may find itself stuck upon a sinking peak. This is a significant dynamic to understand when analyzing post-peak oil agriculture. The free market is often looked to for correcting market inefficiencies, yet when faced with a changing fitness landscape, the free market may deliver minute changes upon a sub-optimal peak. Additionally, looking to fine-tune industrial agriculture to respond to the changing landscape may also strand us upon a sub-optimal peak while leaving the emerging higher peaks untouched.

Figure 1. Example of a fitness landscape with optimal and suboptimal peaks. Individual systems can evolve and climb peaks, but as the landscape changes, the systems cannot ‘jump’ from one peak to another without going down in fitness first.

Transition in the Fitness Landscape
What complex adaptive systems also teach us is that when the environment changes, there will be new fitness peaks that have emerged and may be hereunto unexplored. As we enter the peak oil era we should be mindful of the full spectrum of possibilities.

As we look to the future, we can see that at some point on the long slide down from peak oil, agriculture will, once again, have to become a net energy source. The transition to a more ‘fit’ system does not come through the evolution of the old system, but by the rising of other systems that emerge to find themselves at the base of optimal peaks. Unfortunately, in complex evolving systems, we do not know what the ‘most fit’ systems will be.

In order to uncover the new landscape and find the emerging peaks, alternative agricultural systems must be encouraged to take root and grow. This does not have to be a completely blind endeavor. We do know what some of the qualities of a successful system (or systems) will look like in a post peak oil future. There are three criteria that can help identify successful agricultural systems:

1) The systems will be net energy sources instead of net energy users.
2) The systems will be highly productive per unit of area.
3) The systems will improve soils over their initial state.

The Role of Policy
High input agriculture will not disappear overnight, nor would we want it to. By definition, peak oil means we are roughly halfway through global deposits. Fossil fuels and high input agriculture will still have a place in coming decades at supplying enough metabolizable energy to sustain seven billion humans. Global agricultural policy must facilitate a stable environment for the new systems to evolve and propagate. Rising energy prices will eventually reward the low-input innovators over industrial agriculture, but too volatile of a marketplace can stifle change. Additionally, volatility could lead to more rapid consolidation of agriculture, which is contrary to the policy goal.

To foster the emerging systems, global agricultural policy should:

1) Provide extension of systems that meet the three criteria. Particularly extension work must be done in;
i. Developing countries where energy and food scarcity will first be felt.
ii. Urban areas, where local production of fruits, vegetables and meats close to market can be profitable.
2) Institute an international grain reserve to even price volatility and avoid a crisis situation of food scarcity.
3) Use bioenergy policies to accomplish two goals;
i. Provide some alternative to fossil fuels (albeit small).
ii. Use the excess agricultural demand to keep prices high enough to allow investments in alternative systems.
4) Allow regions to have the right to food sovereignty and set their own unique food policy strategies.

Milton Freedman once said, “In times of crisis, people pick up whatever ideas are handy”. As we descend from peak oil, we need to investigate and populate the landscape with many alternative low-energy high-productivity ‘ideas’ as we can. These can be the seeds out of which agriculture can evolve into a system that feeds the large global population, does not need energy subsidies and also improves the environment.

Newly Emerging Alternative Systems
Agriculture has long been thought of as a degrader of land from its natural conditions. At best, agriculture-done-right can reduce erosion and soil degradation, but it is part of conventional thinking that agriculture cannot improve soils over their natural undisturbed state while being highly productive.

This post will list only a few systems within a growing body of work that shows that agricultural production systems can, in fact, meet the three criteria of successful future systems. Unlike the Green Revolution, where one system was implemented on many unique ecosystems, the next revolution will likely consist of diverse agricultural systems uniquely adapted for individual ecosystems. Examples of proven emerging systems include;

a) Short rotation grazing systems first championed by Allan Savory,
b) The use of swales, rock lines and zai methods in the Sahel of Africa.
c) The traditional VAC system of Vietnam which integrates aquaculture, garden, livestock and forest agriculture within small plots.
d) The no-till rice-legume-rye system developed by Masanobu Fukuoka in Japan.

In addition to the many existing systems which can meet the three criteria, there is ongoing research into new systems that may radically change the face of agriculture. Examples include;

e) The perennial polyculture system being developed by Land Institute in Salina, Kansas.
f) The use of biochar in agricultural fields to simultaneously increase soil fertility and sequester carbon long term. This new endeavor has come out of recent investigation into terra preta soils of the Amazon basin which indicates that indigenous populations use of biochar allowed them to intensively farm fields for thousands of years while building soil health.
g) The development of a blight resistant American Chestnut and the designing of edible forests adapted to the eastern US.

Final Remarks
The occurrence of peak oil will be the most significant event in agriculture in the past 80 years. In describing its influence, one must go beyond a conventional description of cost increases or a discussion of novel industrial agricultural practices. A framework must be laid out that will enable people to grasp the scope of the problems we will soon be facing. With the framework of seeing agriculture as a fitness landscape, people may more easily understand the logic and importance of adopting the four policy points.

To borrow another term from complex adaptive systems theory, punctuated equilibrium states that species genetic makeup will be quite stable for long periods of time, but when change does occur, it happens quickly through a rapid branching of events. As one system begins to break down, there is vast potential for others to emerge. The evolution of new systems can occur quickly. It is our role to feed production methods that meet the three criteria and provide an environment that will not stifle their propagation.